Global strategist Peter Zeihan has some firm and radical views on what’s going to happen across the world, predictions drawn primarily from demographics that demand our attention in Australia and New Zealand.
If a country has an aging population and not enough young people to replace those moving into retirement, it has a problem. This phenomenon has for years been a problem in Japan (visually well represented as a ‘population pyramid’). It’s also useful to compare the population pyramids for other significant regions around the world and then look at Australia in the following graphics.
If the mid-to-upper sections of a pyramid are wider than the mid-to-lower sections, there aren’t enough young people to pay taxes to support the older population. Also, people in the mid to upper age ranges consume less, so demand falls off. Clearly, Japan is in this category.
South Korea is in even worse shape. China also has difficulties although there does seem to be a decent number of 30-34-year-olds.
Conversely, the future for India looks very bright, with lots of young people coming up and far fewer aging people. How can it be anything but a superpower, at least as far as the demographics are concerned?
Africa is the standout, which has hordes of young people with very few aging members across most of its countries
Australia has a reasonable number of 25–39-year-olds, but also has many older people close to retirement.
The US has quite a number of pending retirees but a correspondingly wide mid-section.
There are other factors at play in determining whether or not a country succeeds, but demographics are important. Zeihan’s latest book: ‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning – Mapping the Collapse of Globalization’ certainly looks at demographics, but also at a comprehensive slate of related issues. We don’t necessarily agree with everything he says, but much of it is hard to deny.