A recent survey into what New Zealanders say they will do when released from Alert Level 4 lockdown, shows huge surges in custom for the retail, postal and courier and travel sectors in the first six months, if allowed. Within these, fast-food outlets, hardware stores, garden centres and cafes will see millions of customers return. Some services open during Alert Level 4 lockdown, will also see a large growth in trade.
The survey – conducted by Horizon Research 7-12 April 2020 – found the number using petrol stations will jump from 43% of adults to 82% (up from around 1,553,200 people to an estimated 2,930,100).
The number using hardware stores will lift from 4% during the lockdown to 52% (151,000 now, rising to 1,876,600).
For hard-hit hospitality businesses like cafes, there will be a strong resurgence – as soon as their use is allowed. Cafes rank seventh for intended use out of 47 potential activities measured: 51% of adults will use a café, around 1,837,200 adults.
Between 13% and 25% of adults will shop at electronics, appliance and furnishing stores.
The tourism and related businesses will enjoy a re-start, with more than a million adults intending to take domestic holidays and road trips:
- 29% of adults (1,053,000) will go on a domestic holiday.
- 33% (1,175,700) would go on New Zealand road trips.
- 19% (697,000) would definitely take domestic flights.
- 9% (327,200) would take international flights – assuming they’re available.
- 8% (276,800) would stay in hotels.
- 11% (388,300) would stay in motels.
Courier and postal services will enjoy some of the biggest increases in the first six months as lockdown restrictions are eased, with the number of adults sending non-essential, non-commercial, courier items increasing from 7% to 43% (258,900 to 1,528,000 users).
While there will be a huge return to fast-foods, restaurants and cafes, half a million will go back to the gym, around the same level of use measured in 2016 and 2018 surveys
There will also be a resurgence in the numbers attending sports events, funerals, weddings and events.
The number going to movies will rise to 31% (1,110,900) people.
The survey was conducted among 1,267 respondents aged 18+ to inform pandemic managers and others, but was not commissioned by any client.