Cisco Predicts More IP Traffic in Next Five Years Than in History of Internet

In BICSI Bytes, Newsby info@bicsi.com.au

According to Cisco, more than 4.7 zettabytes of IP traffic has flowed across the internet since its inception in 1984 – the equivalent of all the movies ever made crossing global IP networks in less than a minute!

Yet Cisco’s latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) predicts that by 2022, more IP traffic will cross global networks than in all prior ‘internet years’ combined up to the end of 2016. In other words, more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the 32 years since the internet started.

Where will that traffic come from? By 2022, 60% of the global population will be internet users; over 28 billion devices and connections will be online; and video will make up 82% of all IP traffic.

“The size and complexity of the internet grows in ways that many could not have imagined,” said Jonathan Davidson, senior VP, Service Provider Business at Cisco. “Since we started the VNI Forecast in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, amassing a 36% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) with more people, devices and applications accessing IP networks.”

Cisco’s five-year (2017-2022) VNI predicts:

  1. By 2022, global IP traffic will more than triple:
    • Expected to reach 396 exabytes/month (or 4.8 zettabytes/year), up from 122 exabytes/month in 2017.
    • Busiest hour of internet traffic will be six times busier than the average. Busy hour internet traffic will grow five-fold from 2017 to 2022, reaching 7.2 petabytes (7,200 terabytes)/second. In comparison, average Internet traffic will grow four-fold over the same period to reach 1 petabyte/second.
  2. By 2022, 60% of world’s population will use the internet:
    • 4.8 billion Internet users—up from 3.4 billion in 2017 or 45% of world’s population.
  3. By 2022, there will be 28.5 billion networked devices and connections globally:
    • 28.5 billion fixed and mobile personal devices and connections, up from 18 billion in 2017—or 3.6 networked devices/connections per person, up from 2.4 per person.
    • More than half of all devices and connections will be machine-to-machine, up from 34% in 2017. That’s 14.6 billion connections from ‘smart devices’, up from 6.1 billion.
  4. By 2022, broadband, Wi-Fi and mobile speeds will double or more:
    • Average global fixed broadband speeds will nearly double from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps.
    • Average global Wi-Fi connection speeds will more than double from 24.4 Mbps to 54.0 Mbps.
    • Average global mobile connection speeds will more than triple from 8.7 Mbps to 28.5 Mbps.
  5. By 2022, video, gaming and multimedia will make up more than 85% of all traffic:
    • IP video traffic will quadruple, making up an even larger percentage of total IP traffic than before—up to 82% from 75%.
    • Gaming traffic is expected to grow nine-fold to represent 4% of overall IP traffic.
    • Virtual and augmented reality traffic will skyrocket to reach 4.02 exabytes/month, up from 0.33 exabytes/month in 2017.