|In its latest Data Centre Switch Long-Range Forecast Report, Crehan Research predicts that 400 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) switches will see initial shipments this year and grow exponentially, driving the majority of datacentre Ethernet switch bandwidth by 2022.
“Beginning with high-density 100GbE systems, we entered a new era of much faster datacentre switch upgrades, and that trend is predicted to continue with 400GbE,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “With its expected market-leading price-per-gigabit and no foreseeable shortage of demand for higher-speed networking capacity in cloud datacentres, 400GbE should surpass a million ports shipped in less time than it took 100GbE to reach that threshold.”
In addition to a strong ramp of 400GbE, the report predicts that:
· 400GbE datacentre switches will offer a bandwidth discount over lower speed switches during the initial year of shipments;
· 400GbE adoption will be further bolstered by the arrival of 100G-PAM4 SerDes, likely around 2020, thus reducing the number of lanes required to achieve 400GbE by half – from 8*50 to 4*100 – and further lessening the cost and power of these datacentre switches;
· 100GbE shipments will surpass 40GbE shipments during 2018, just three years after the initial shipments of high-density 100GbE datacentre switch systems; and
· The overall market average per-port selling price for datacentre switching will remain relatively stable, driven by the adoption of higher-speed switches.